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Old 31.05.2004., 14:17   #1
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Default Bulls vs. Bears

Na ovom forumu raspravljamo o future tržištima, forexu, opcijama, individualnim dionicama, a da nismo spomenuli market u globalu. Dobro, ne mogu reći da ga nismo spomenuli, ali ga nismo analizirali. ExpertTrader je spomenuo (ako se dobro sjećam da je to bio on) da prvo odredimo u kojem smjeru ide market, zatim izaberemo sektor, a tek onda odlučujemo koju ćemo firmu kupiti. Do kud će DOW? Jesmo li u trendu? Da li je gotova korekcija? Sve su to pitanja koja ovdje ne raspravljamo.

Zbog toga otvaram ovu temu gdje ćemo se pozabaviti marketom u globalu. :clap:

Za danas sam odredio iznijeti moju sliku DJIA. Slika vam prikazuje razdoblje od 02.07.1998. do danas.

Nakon kratkotrajnog silaznog trenda, DJIA se 04.09.1998. odbio od 7,400. Taj level nam je jako bitan jer se krajem 2002. i početkom 2003. godine DJIA u tri navrata odbio od tog supporta.
Poslije toga imamo uzlazni trend koji je trajao točno godinu dana. 27.08.1999. smo dosegnuli 11,365 što se poslije pokazao kao ključni resistance level. Nakon tog peak-a slijedi broadening formation gdje DJIA svaki put dosegne isti vrh (level između 11,365 i 11,425), ali zato ode sve dublje u ponor. 21.09.2001. DJIA probija down slopping support liniju za 740 bodova. Kada uzmemo tu udaljenost i prebacimo je 6 mjeseci unaprijed, onda ćemo vidjeti da nam je upravo toliko trebalo da ponovno dosegnemo resistance liniju koju nikad više nismo dohvatili. Zar to nije fenomenalno? Nakon toga slijedi novi ponor i to do naših ključnih 7,400. Tu se DJIA odbija u tri navrata od supporta i kreće prema gore. Taj bih pattern ja nazvao H&S reversal. Neck linija bi mi bila na 9,080 bodova, a probijanjem te linije bikovi preuzimaju kontrolu nad medvjedima.

Okrenimo se sada bližoj prošlosti. Dakle, imamo uzlazni trend od 14.03.2003. do 20.02.2004. U tom periodu nam se market lijepo oporavio. Od kraja siječnja do početka ožujka 2004. vidimo kako nam market nema snage probiti resistance od prije dvije godine i dolazi do korekcije. Korekcija nam se iscrtala u obliku wedge patterna i dosegla je 23.6% fibonacci linije. Da li je korekcija gotova? Po meni ne još. Da bi mogli potvrditi kraj korekcije, wedge bi trebao biti probijen sa gornje strane, dakle kroz silaznu resistance liniju. Pored toga naš prvi značajni support je na 9,080 gdje je ujedno 50% fibonacci korekcija, tako da imamo još puno mjesta za down trend.

Evo forumaši, diskusija je otvorena, a sad ste vi na redu...

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Priloženi dokument (samo za registrirane korisnike)
File Type: pdf DJIA.pdf (43,6 KB, otvoreno 44 puta)
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Old 31.05.2004., 15:12   #2
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Default Odgovor na: Bulls vs. Bears

Daytrader, dobro je da si otvorio ovu temu - mislim da nam je nedostajala.
Iako je svako prognoziranje prilično nezahvalno možemo ipak sagledati neke od najznačajnijih "sila" koje utječu na market te eventualno ih projicirati u budućnost kako bi možda dobili neke naznake o kretanju marketa.

Nije naravno problem utvrditi da na market trenutno najveći utjecaj ima cijena nafte te situacija u Iraku i terorizam općenito. Utjecaj FED-a je pomalo izblijedio jer postoji popriličan konsenzus da se kamatna stopa neće drastično povećati u Junu ( ja bih dodao -AKO se uopće poveća).

Kakva će biti cijena nafte u narednih tri mjeseca Bog dragi zna. Izgleda da na nju više utječe STRAH (od teroristiičkih akcija i situacije u Iraku) te, potaknute time, ŠPEKULACIJE o mogućoj zaradi na tom strahu, nego stvarani odnos ponude i potražnje.
Proizilazi da će cijenu nafte odrediti Teroristi (kojima je to i CILJ po meni - nihove akciju bivaju sve perfidnije - promjena vlasti u Španjolskoj, sada povećanom cijenom nafte nastoje kao najvećeg uvoznika, ekonomski oslabiti USA i EU). A kada će i koliko oni djelovati to zna jedino bin Laden.
Svi izgleda očekuju nastavak tih akcija pa će po meni tržište biti prilično "Kvrgavo" (trading range 9500 - 10100) sve dok se terorističke akcije događaju IZVAN USA. Ako bi se, ne daj Bože, desile unutar USA bojim se da će biti gore nego poslije 11/9.
Ljeto će dodati"sol na ranu" već oslabljenog prisustva Institucionalnih ulagača (sigurno ste primijetili slabije volumene trgovanja) a "kratki bič" pravi oštre zamahe gore / dolje pa je i to po meni potvrda veće volatilnosti barem do Labour Day-a.

Da li vidite išta pozitivno što bi se moglo desiti?
Mirno preuzimanje vlasti u Iraku možda ali ostanak Amera tamo NEĆE zaustaviti sukobe IMHO. Smanjenje Američkih snaga za samo 20.000 ljudi u Iraku im nikako u tome neće pomoći.

Nepodizanje FED kamatne stope 29/30 Juna neće po meni donijeti nikakvo veliko oduševljenje (dapače prouzročit će velike poremećaje na Bond marketu - jer Bond marketu ne odgovara povećana inflacija).

Dakle što je Bottom line - po meni kako sam već rekao "KVRGAVO" bez nekog posebnog DOWN niti UP trenda sve tamo do Labour Day-a.
A tada opet dolazi vječito volatilni Sept. i Oct. - MA ZAPRAVO "SJAJNO".
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Old 01.06.2004., 13:33   #3
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Default Odgovor na: Bulls vs. Bears

Source, The Wall Street Journal (Sept. 93) shows July to be the best-performing month for playing the stock market, with a 1.56 percent average gain since 1915. August is second best, with 1.4 percent.
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Old 15.06.2004., 20:22   #4
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Najveći slomovi burze bili su u oktobru, 1929. i 1987.
Siječanj je jak, climbing 1.38 percent.

Za ljude koji ne znaju, bilo bi lijepo približiti market u nekim elementarnim vidovima, privući ih, a onda tek ponuditi analize.
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Old 17.06.2004., 20:21   #5
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Default The Coming Confirmation?

Evo franciska nešto za tebe...

Kad netko započinje sa učenjem tehničke analize, onda prva lekcija koju treba savladati je "DOW Theory". Nadam se da svi vi znate tko je Charles H. Dow i što je on učinio za market!? Ali da je ne pričam sada tom velikanu, ja sam se odlučio na to da vam scan-copy-paste jedan članak iz Technical Anallysis of Stock and Commodities Magazine.

The Coming Confirmation?

A major Dow theory showdown looms as the averages test the March 2002 highs.

by David Penn

Although there is a great deal to Dow theory that is often not appropriately ascribed to it (market prices discounting all available news, the impossibility of market manipulation over the long term, and more), one of the most famous tenets or observations of Dow theory has to do with the relationship between the industrial and transportation (formerly rail) averages. Namely, this observation holds that for any market move to be significant and long-lasting, the two main Dow averages must confirm each other. In short, as the industrials make a new high or low, so must the transports. Two of Dow theory's modern interpreters, Robert D. Edwards and John Magee, report in their seminal book, Technical Analysis Of Stock Trends, that "the averages must confirm":

This is the most oftea questioned and the most difficult to rationalize of all the Dow principles. Yet it has stood the test of time; the fact that it has "worked" is not disputed by any who have carefully examined the records. Those who have disregarded it in practice have, more often than not, had occasion to regret their apostasy. What it means is that no valid signal of a change in trend can be produced by the action of one average alone.

It is important to recognize what this says — and what it does not say. Often, an overeager interpreter of Dow theory will attempt to reason that, in a declining market, if one average makes a lower low and the other average does not, it shows that both averages are weak. Or conversely, that the lower low on the one average was not confirmed by the higher low on the other average and thus both averages are likely to move higher.

This is not the correct interpretation. What Edwards and Magee insist is that in the event that the averages do not confirm, then the current or prevailing trend — generally referred to as the primary trend — should be considered to be still in effect until both averages, by confirming each other's action, prove otherwise. Without the confirmation of both, as Edwards and Magee noted, "at best, the direction of the primary trend is still in doubt."

A MARCH TO REMEMBER
I found myself thinking about Dow theory after looking at weekly charts of the Dow industrials and Dow transports recently. Both averages have, as of mid-January 2004, been in significant bull markets — the industrials' lasting from October 2002 bottom and the transports' originating from the March 2003 bottom. Both markets ended 2003 with new highs for the year, which sets up a major test of the highs of 2002.

Investors, traders, and analysts will not have to wait long. either. The industrials' weekly close at 10,600 is less than 75 points away from their 2002 high, made on March 22 at 10,673, and the transports' recent weekly close at 3036 is a mere 15 points away from their 2002 high of 3051, registered on March 8.

The psychological implications of this test are as significant as any, since these bull markets — or bear-market rallies, if you prefer — began. These March highs represent the extent to which the previous great bear market rally, the post-September 11, 2001, "war rally," advanced — some 32% over six months in the industrials and about 57% over the same period in the transports. This, incidentally, compares to 47% over the 15 months since the October 2002 bottom in the industrials and 58% over the 10 months since the March 2003 bottom in the transports.

One of the strongest signals in a bull market comes when prices reach a previous peak, exceed that peak, then follow through with further price action to the upside. This is what technicians refer to as a "failed top test": The top was tested by advancing prices and it did not hold.

Market sentiment — which Dow theorists like George Schaefer thought was especially important — remains very strong, even as both averages appear to be technically overbought. Schaefer, speaking broadly about such scenarios, wrote:

... Our new Dow theory allows the crowd to get as emotional in its selling or buying as it will — with no restrictions whatever on the duration or extent of the secondary or intermediate trend. In primary bull markets, when things get scary, we simply wait for the fearful to sell out, then we assume that the main primary trend will resume as expected. In primary bear markets, just the opposite is true.

Thus, the trend in sentiment — like the trend in the averages themselves — is upward and, like the primary trend in Schaefer's formulation, is likely to continue upward. So it is likely that both the industrials and the transports will in fact trade above their March 2002 highs. However, a "nonconfirmation" in which the transports, for example, had a closing high above the 3051 level while the industrials failed to close above the 10,673 level would mean only that the prevailing trend was in doubt. It would not necessarily mean that the averages were about to collapse, nor that the average that had taken out the March 2002 would "lead" the other average higher.

All it would mean is that the trend (and I would consider this to be an intermediate or secondary bullish trend, in Dow theory parlance, within a primary bear market) is somewhat in doubt. Until the other average — transports or industrials — confirms, investors and traders who decide to participate in the market should continue to view the market just as they had before the "nonconfirmation" (in this case, still bullish, still moving higher, still long).

BRING ON THE BULLS?
In concert with other technical analysis tools. Dow theory is every bit as valuable a method for understanding the movement of stock prices as it ever was. Part of the current bullish case on stocks is predicated on simple chart patterns — namely, the triple bottom and head & shoulders bottoms traced out in most of the major market averages and indexes (the Standard & Poor's 500, Nasdaq, Dow industrials, and Dow transports).

With regard to the Dow averages, it is interesting to note that the Dow transports have already surpassed the projection based on their triple-bottom formation from the summer of 2002 until the breakout in the spring of 2003. The projected minimum move (using either Stan Weinstein's swing rule or the methods outlined by Thomas Bulkowski in his Encyclopedia Of Chart Patterns) in the transports was to about 3022, and the projected minimum move for the industrials is close to 10,957. This strongly underscores the bullish argument, particularly with regard to the blue chips of the Dow industrials — though it should be mentioned that the Dow transports have only recently arrived at their minimum projection.

The triple-bottom formation in the Nasdaq was exceptionally modest in size, projecting a minimum move to 1934 that the Nasdaq was able to best in early November 2003. The Standard & Poor's 500's triple bottom projected a minimum move to 1161, a level less than 30 points away from the S&P 500's February 2002 levels. In this way, the Nasdaq and the transports appear to have moved most quickly in response to their breakouts, while the Dow industrials and S&P 500 have lagged somewhat.

Writing on his website, Richard Russell (author of the long-running Dow Theory Letters) observed that "the number of people who hold stocks from the beginning to the end of a bull market can probably be counted in the hundreds." This is likely as true for secondary and intermediate bull markets as it is for primary bull markets. While it is always a good idea to, as the saying goes, "take something off the table" (in other words, don't forget to sell), it is also a good idea to avoid leaving the table altogether until you are sure there is nothing left to gain without significant additional risk.

There should be a corollary to Joseph Kennedy's famous dictum, announced in the wake of the 1929 crash, that "only a fool holds out for the top dollar." That corollary might go something like: "A fool and his bull market are too easily parted." For those sensitive to the early entry opportunities Dow theory can offer, Dow theory is no less effective in letting them know when to get out. As if the averages confirm in the near term, then that "when" is still not "now."

SUGGESTED READING:
Bulkowski. Thomas (2000). Encyclopedia Of Chart Patterns, John Wiley & Sons.
Edwards, Robert D., and John Magee [2001]. Technical Analysis Of Stock Trends. 8th ed.. W.H.C. Bassetti, ed. Saint Lucie Press.
Russell, Richard. "The History Of Dow Theory," Dow Theory Letters at DowTheoryLetters.com.

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Old 18.06.2004., 19:16   #6
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Dobro, Daytrader, hajde reci kome će ovo pomoći? Tko će se odlučiti za strong buy?
:waiting:
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Old 18.06.2004., 23:27   #7
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Citat:
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Dobro, Daytrader, hajde reci kome će ovo pomoći? Tko će se odlučiti za strong buy?
:waiting:
Pa vjerovatno nekom, tko je razumio o čemu se ovdje radi. :D

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Old 07.07.2004., 11:22   #8
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Default Odgovor na: Bulls vs. Bears

Posto smo vec zagazili u earnings season ucinilo mi se dosta vjernim prikazom situacije na trzistu :
QTE

In addition, the markets are concerned about US equity markets following
yesterday's profit warnings from Nasdaq-listed Conexant Systems and Veritas
Software.
The release of earnings today from Yahoo Inc will be the main focus today.
Mitul Kotecha, currency strategist at CALYON said the markets' reaction to
negative corporate reflects the fact that earnings expectations are already very
high.
"As a result, market reaction to earnings and economic news has now become
asymmetric, with good news being ignored and bad news seeing an overly negative
reaction," he said.
Michael Klawitter, currency strategist at WestLB, agreed that even positive
earnings data may not be enough to push equities higher.


UNQTE

Izgleda da nam predstoji veoma vruce ljeto i samo jedan smjer - DOWN. (E, bas sam pogodio trenutak ulaska)
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Old 07.07.2004., 21:27   #9
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Default Odgovor na: Bulls vs. Bears

Zašto bi bio samo DOWN smjer,ako je nafta škakljiva,te će i dalje biti visoko,naftna industrija,prirodni plin,zovu na ulaganje :D
Npr WMB,CHK,DVN...
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Old 07.07.2004., 23:19   #10
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Citat:
knezevic67
Zašto bi bio samo DOWN smjer,ako je nafta škakljiva,te će i dalje biti visoko,naftna industrija,prirodni plin,zovu na ulaganje
Npr WMB,CHK,DVN...

Nije te dugo bilo
Ja o marketu a ti o dionicama
YHOO u potpunosti ispunio ocekivanja udvostrucio profiit a ipak evo ga sada na minus 13 %.

N.B. Plima i g.... dize, a oseka za sobom odvuce (skoro) sve. :D
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