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Old 14.02.2017., 09:28   #61
red max
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I evo nas opet skoro na ATH:



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Old 14.02.2017., 22:40   #62
lovac
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Ne isplati se shortati bilo sta dok market ne pocme padati. Gledajuci mjesecni chart cekati cemo najmanje mjesecima za ozbiljan pad. Vjerovatno tek sljedece godine mozda nesta bude.
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Old 04.03.2017., 22:15   #63
prijeko
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Alo, ima li ovdje još živih shortera ili bar koji ranjenik? Nisam znao da se u sportsku prognozu upuštaju i oni koji trguju opcijama..
Final leg up je sada tek 15% ( ako je final, a ako nije - onda još gore po vas),a median je 23%,a average na 28%. S tim da su znali otići neki i preko 50%, jedan i preko 100%.
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Old 05.03.2017., 19:27   #64
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Ima, kako ne. Strpljivo čekam mjesecima od zadnjeg pokušaja.
Planirao sam ući na ovim razinama no odustao sam jer je izostala volatilnost.
Sljedeći target je između 2450 i 2550. Ako VIX padne prema ATL uletio bi tu u leveraged ETF na kratko.
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Old 31.03.2017., 22:17   #65
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index lupio u tvrdje
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Old 01.04.2017., 20:59   #66
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Mogućnosti: 75% vjerojatnost da je final leg up; nakon minornih swing lowsa do -3,2% na S&P ( sa 2.400 na 2.322) indeks opet uzjahao na 2.370; međutim ako padne ispod 2.322 ili 2.300 vjerojatnost da je gotovo je ogromna ; ali ako poraste preko 2.401 onda postaje zanimljivo i za to postoji realna opcija; april će donijeti više odgovora i po meni konačne; znači ‘samo’ je pitanje koliko final leg up može biti dug i na koliko su programirani algoritmi i kako stojimo sa stvarnim fundamentima; ako naš Bik uspješno prebrodi i April (da ostane tu negdje gdje je i sada) onda može i dalje od ‘sell in May and go away’; međutim to povlači i neke druge stvari, a to je ‘month of aggression’ (sjeverna hemisfera se budi, ali i medvjedi) koji počinje 20/21.March. i traje do 19/20. April ; ključan bi mogao biti period 15-20 April, a pogotovo 2-day period 19/20 April (prvi pucanj u Revolutionary War i prvi pucanj u Građanskom ratu, Oklahoma city, Columbine High School massacre, Boston Marathon Bombing & Metcalf Sniper Attack etc) kada su mnogi negativni događaji zadesili US; vidjeti ćemo koliko je naš Bik snažan, ali da ima šansu da ide dalje – ima, sada je na 2% iznad 2.322 nakon minornih sellova, a ako ide naprijed i ne padne ispod toga mogao biti i 5-10% dalje.
(“In the Spring, at the time when kings go off to war, David sent Joab out with the king‟s men and the whole Israelite army. They destroyed the Ammonites and besieged Rabbah. But David remained in Jerusalem.” II Samuel 11:1)
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Old 02.04.2017., 16:21   #67
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Indeed, the first "red flags" are being seen in developed Anglo-Saxon markets, Ralph Jainz who runs the Halkin Wittenberg European Small & Mid Cap Fund at Halkin Asset Management told CNBC at the Investors' Choice Awards on Thursday evening.

"We find less and less pockets of mispricing and undervaluation. Expectations are very high – probably by now unrealistically high. We are coming to the mature end of the cycle. We are seeing the first warning signs and red flags," he observed.

Jainz pointed to credit availability in the U.S., particularly highlighting flagging lending dynamics in commercial and industrial loans as well as auto and household debt. Given the U.S. economy is poised for a series of interest rate hikes, Jainz noted his concerns about the outlook for ongoing demand dynamics, particularly given the boost demand has received for many years on the back of cheap financing fuelled by generous central banks, which may have had the effect of artificially "bringing forward" demand rather than creating a wholly new source.

"If there is any demand destruction coming from that then we would probably look at the very tail end of the current economic bull market in equities and as far as we are concerned valuations are really already so stretched, already the risk is sincerely asymmetric – i.e. weighted to the downside – there may be another 5-10 percent on the upside if valuations overrun," he said.

While Jainz believes it is still too early to start shorting too aggressively given expectations for a buoyant first and second-quarter earnings' season, he believes over the course of this year, more returns are likely to owe to short positioning than long.

"We'll probably reach the point of not only maximum euphoria but also in terms of the estimates for revenue and earnings growth for the years to come," he opined, before outlining what could lie beyond the summer.

"As interest rates rise it is almost impossible to assume that there is no effect on demand and potentially demand destruction … [also if that] bringing forward effect ultimately leads to a sharper deterioration, the slowdown could actually be quite rapid," Jainz cautioned.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/31/new-g...an-action.html
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Old 04.01.2018., 18:13   #68
lovac
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Opet lose vijesti za TSLA. Umjesto da dionica padne 10-20% cak je bila u plusu.
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Old 19.04.2020., 21:30   #69
lovac
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Nije nitko linkao mozda najvazniji intervju u zadnjih 10 godina i vise. Sokantno i tesko za prihvatiti.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bu...out-2020-04-17
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“In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn't read all the time -- none, zero. You'd be amazed at how much Warren reads--and at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I'm a book with a couple of legs sticking out.”
― Charles T. Munger
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Old 20.04.2020., 10:14   #70
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https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...ome-businesses

""I would say basically we’re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that’s ever happened comes. We just want to get through the typhoon, and we’d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity. We’re not playing, ‘Oh goody, goody, everything’s going to hell, let’s plunge 100% of the reserves [into buying businesses].’"

He added, “Warren wants to keep Berkshire safe for people who have 90% of their net worth invested in it. We’re always going to be on the safe side. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t do something pretty aggressive or seize some opportunity. But basically we will be fairly conservative. And we’ll emerge on the other side very strong.”

"I don’t think we know exactly what the macroeconomic consequences are going to be,” said Mr. Munger. “I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know."

Munger may not know, but Buffett does and explains why this time he will not only not be buying, but in fact shuttering:

“This will cause us to shutter some businesses,” Munger said. “We have a few bad businesses that...we could be tolerant of as members of the family. Somebody else would have already shut them down. We’ve got a few businesses, small ones, we won’t reopen when this is over.”
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