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Old 07.12.2008., 14:53   #1
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Default Gold investing

Zbog povećanog broja postova vezanih uz investiranje u zlato otvaram ovu temu na kojoj dalje možemo raspravljati o potencijalu ulaganja u zlato, te postati povezane članke.
Dobro će nam doći da na jednom mjestu imamo sabrane sve rasprave vezane uz zlato.

Pozlatilo vam se
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Old 07.12.2008., 16:00   #2
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Default Odgovor na: Gold investing

Za početnike bih preporučio pročitati sljedeće članke:
Gold as investment
Methods of investing in gold

Prvi link ukazuje na neke osnove ulaganja u zlato, prikazuje povijesno kretanje cijene zlata u dolarima, njegovu korelaciju sa tržištem kapitala, srebrom, prosječnim plaćama,... Također prikazuje faktore koji mogu pozitivno ili negativno utjecati na cijenu zlata, te investicijske strategije, ako i mnoštvo korisnih linkova za daljnje istraživanje.

Drugi link objašnjava načine ulaganja u zlato. Ja ću ih za sada samo pobrojati za one koji se ne snalaze najbolje sa engleskim.
Dakle ulaganja u zlato uključuju:

Ulaganje u stvarno fizičko zlato uz dostavu ili pohranu. To su zlatne poluge za veće ulagače, te zlatnici vrlo popularni među malih ulagačima. Rizici su mogučnost da ti netko ukrade zlato koje držiš u kući ili sefu, ili pak da snosiš relativno visoke troškove čuvanja zlata. Prednost je naravno to što se radi o pravom zlatu koje se nalazi kod tebe i koje u trenucima najveće krize postaje gotovo jedino pravo sredstvo plaćanja.

Certifikati - ako sam dobro shvatio ti zapravo kupiš papir koji kaže da posjeduješ zlato, makar ga nemaš fizički niti ga onaj koji ga izdaje ima!?!?
No onaj koji izdaje certifikat garantira da češ pri prodaju svog certifirkata dobiti svoju vrijednost. Prednost je ta što ne plačaš troškove čuvanja zlata (kad u ovom slučaju ni ne postoji), što je kod investiranja u zlato jedan od najvećih dugoročnih troškova.
Perth Mint Certificate Program (PMCP) je jedini program izdavanja certifikata garantiran od vlade amerike, pa bi se trebao smatrati vrlo sigurnim iako u slučaju najveće krize možda nečeš moći odmah doći do svoje vrijednosti ako je onaj koji garantira certifikate u problemima.

Zlatni računi u bankama - određene banake (uglavnom švicarske) nude mogučnost pohranjivanja zlata na račun kao i bilo koje druge valute, te usluge kupovine i prodje istog kao da se radi o valuti.

ETF-ovi - exchange traded funds - oni su neka vrst zatvorenih fondova. Ovdje su nam zanimljivi prvenstveno ETFovi kojima je sva imovina uložena u fizičko zlato i čijim se dionicama trži na svim većim burzama u svijetu kao i dionicama ostalih dioničkih društava. Kako je sva imovina u fizičkom zlatu tako i cijena dionice ovog fonda usko prati kretanje same cijene zlata. Ovo je jedan od najpopularnijih načina ulaganja u zlato i najpogodniji za kratkoročno do srednjeročno špekuliranje cijenom zlata. Najveći takav fond je SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)(stvarno preporučam istraživanje ovog sajta jer osim o ulaganju u sam fond ima mnogo korisnih informacija o ulaganju u zlato)... općenito GLD je drugi najveći ETF na svijetu, te 8. najveći pojedninačni posjednik fizičkog zlata na svijetu (nakon centralnih banaka nekih od najmoćnijih država svijeta - Gold reserves). GLD po svakoj dionici drži cca 1/10 unce zlata pa i cijena predstavlja otrpilike 1/10 spot cijene zlata. No oni naplaćuju 0.4% godišnje naknade za vođenje fonda, što uzimaju prodajom adekvatne količine zlata tako da je s vremenom jedna dionica GLD poduprta sve manjom količinom zlata što je ujedno i jedan od glavnih nedostataka dugoročnog držanja GLD u portfelju (>5 godina) u odnosu na neke druge načine ulaganja, kao npr certifikati. Ne bih sad duljio o ovome, jer vjerujem da će se još mnogo raspravljati o GLD u narednom periodu.

Derivati - kao gold forwards, futures and options. Za sada ne znam mnogo o ovom načinu ulaganja pa ostavljam nekome tko zna da pobliže opiše.

Kompanije koje vade zlato - dakle, gold mining companies. U osnovi oni vade zlato iz zemlje, prerađuju ga i prodaju na tržištu. Ako je cijena zlata iznad troška vađenja oni zarađuju, ako je manja imaju gubitak. Njihovim dionicama se trguje na burzama diljem svijeta. Ulagati se može u pojedninačne kompanije ili u fondove orijentirane na gold minere, a nappopularniji je Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Ovo je također vrlo popularan način ulaganja za špekulante, ali za sada neću duljiti post, vjerujem da će se još mnogo pisati o ovom ETFu.
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Old 09.12.2008., 00:10   #3
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[quote=Dreamer;461795]
Certifikati - ako sam dobro shvatio ti zapravo kupiš papir koji kaže da posjeduješ zlato, makar ga nemaš fizički niti ga onaj koji ga izdaje ima!?!?
No onaj koji izdaje certifikat garantira da češ pri prodaju svog certifirkata dobiti svoju vrijednost. Prednost je ta što ne plačaš troškove čuvanja zlata (kad u ovom slučaju ni ne postoji), što je kod investiranja u zlato jedan od najvećih dugoročnih troškova.
Perth Mint Certificate Program (PMCP) je jedini program izdavanja certifikata garantiran od vlade amerike, pa bi se trebao smatrati vrlo sigurnim iako u slučaju najveće krize možda nečeš moći odmah doći do svoje vrijednosti ako je onaj koji garantira certifikate u problemima.

/QUOTE]

Mislim da prva recenica nije tocna. Vlasnik certifikata posjeduje fizicko zlato koje se cuva u njegovo ime kod Perth Mint. Evo sto kaze web stranica.
https://online.kitco.com/pmcp/introduction.html


The Perth Mint Certificate (PMC)

The Perth Mint Certificate (PMC) is a document that evidences your legal title to precious metals stored on either an Allocated (segregated) or an Unallocated (unsegregated) basis with The Perth Mint. The document is registered to the owner and identified by a client name and Certificate number....
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Old 09.12.2008., 00:36   #4
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Dreamer dobro da si otvorio novu temu o zlatu iako je već bilo započetih tema (GLD) i Trgovanje plemenitim metalima i sirovinama (ovdje bih posebno istakao doprinos jednog "našeg" čovjeka iz Boliivije pod nickom Oldtrader http://http://www.mojnovac.net/forum...earchid=258516koji ima dosta veoma korisnih savjeta vezanih uz trgovanje zlatom i plemenitim metalima. Ako sam ga dobro procijenio na osnovu postova mora biti industry insider i ima veliko iskustvo u trgovini zlatom. Nažalost kako je naglo došao na ovaj forum tako je i naglo nestao. Čim je zlato počelo gubiti svoj sjaj )
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Old 09.12.2008., 22:55   #5
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GLD tema je baš za ulaganje u GLD etf, dok ovdje očekujem da razmatramo i neke druge mogućnosti ulaganja... možda smo mogli nastaviti na plemenitim metalima.. nisam je uočio, zadnji post je bio tamo negdje u 2006.
Da se malo ispravim re-postat ću odličan post od oldtrader-a sa teme plemenitih metala. To su savijeti prilikom ulaganja u rudnike zlata.

Citat:
Trading Rules
All stock market sectors have their own unique criteria and set of rules for both valuation and for trading specific securities.
The perverse nature and continuously changing structure of the gold bullion market and gold stock markets precludes strict adherence to hard and fast rules. The following list provides the investor with numerous criteria and factors to consider when trading, speculating and investing in gold securities. There is no single "holy grail" for all stocks at all times, but rather a set of guidelines that vary over time as political, economic, demographic and technological changes affect the structure and behaviour of the gold mining industry and markets.

Gold Mining Rules of Thumb
i. The average cash cost of world gold mines in 2002 was $180.00 per ounce. Add in overhead and development costs of $50.00 to $70.00, gives an overall average cost of $260.00 an ounce.
ii. For a new mine going to production, to earn a satisfactory rate of return revenue should be two times the cash cost.
iii. Minimum open pit grade should be one gram. Minimum underground grade should be 8 grams.
iv. In an underground mine a zone or intersection should be economic if the grade times width, in feet, exceeds 3.
v. Large low-grade open pit operations are as much a factor of engineering and management as they are of geology. Specific gravity, work ratios and metallurgy are just a few of the many factors to be considered.
vi. The very nature of the mining exploration business dictates that only a few companies will find a mineral deposit and even fewer will bring it into profitable production.
vii. Unlike the oil industry, most major discoveries are initially made by Juniors.
viii. While great ore bodies can make great companies – e.g. Barrick, Agnico-Eagle and Goldcorp – management still has to explore for more properties to keep the market interested.
ix. One strategy that has been very rewarding has been to buy the shares of each Junior or independent exploration company that pulls a surprising drill hole. Specifically, we mean a "surprise not only to the market but to the operator as well". Then to sell half-on-the-double or half three to six months later. This would have given the astute gold mining investor a position in Barrick Gold, Goldcorp and Corona in the early stages. Historically, the successes would have more than compensated for the failures.
x. Although management of exploration companies is important, it is still true that "a good jockey needs a good horse". Management may have an excellent track record but they still need a good property.
xi. Drill for structure, drift for ore. The investing public has a tendency to exaggerate the significance and conclusiveness of drill holes into vein structures. For this reason, Abington Ventures is currently planning a bulk sample to correlate with results of their recent drill program.
xii. High-grade drill holes should be cut to either:
1. Two to four times the average grade or
2. Cut to one ounce
In order to provide a conservative estimate of ore grade, both the frequency and distribution of high-grade assays should be carefully identified. One needs to be wary of narrow high-grade intersections that are averaged over large core lengths to create "stretch assays", which can be misleading.

Trading Rules and Criteria
1. Use fundamentals for the main direction, quantitative and technical analysis for timing.
2. Like all commodity producers, for a gold stock to provide the investor with stable long-term capital appreciation there must be substantial increases in reserves or physical production over time.
3. A review of the Financial Post 10-Year Range and Dividend book provides ample evidence that the vast majority should be traded. Only a small number rank as "buy and hold" investments and only a few pay dividends. Over the past twenty years, gold stocks have been great speculations and, with few exceptions, poor investments.
4. The investor needs to identify in which category he wishes to place a specific security:
a. Those securities he should rent
b. Those he should lease or
c. Those he wants to own outright
The vast majority falls into the first two categories. In essence, most gold stocks are made to be bought and sold.
5. Demand is always more important than supply in determining the price of any commodity. Analysts tend to emphasize supply because it is easier to measure and quantify.
6. Speculators and hedge funds can be influential when demand for gold is high, especially when the U.S. dollar is weak – they have little or no influence when demand and supply prices are in stable balance.
7. The long term investor should be agnostic on bullion prices. The "gold bug" buys and never sells, the "gold cynic" misses out on the potential for large capital gains, as he never joins the party.
8. In dull markets, it pays for the investor to stay on the sidelines. While gold itself outperforms the stock market in only two out of ten years, there are often mini bull markets in the other precious metals such as platinum and diamonds. It is a time to pull in your nets and to go for casting.
9. In a sideways market, the traders often practice "range bound" or bracket trading especially on stocks like Placer Dome and Barrick, which are now mature, established investment grade securities with limited long-term growth potential.
10. In a bull market for gold securities momentum trading can be very rewarding for the trader.
11. One does not always need a bull market for gold bullion to trigger appreciation in mining stock price – e.g. 1970 to 71, 1974 to 75 and 1982 to 83.
12. North American gold stocks tend as a rule to rise before the bullion price but the time lag and extent of the gain vary enormously. South African gold mines tend to parallel the gold price as they trade on a low price earnings and yield basis. As the gold price rises, so do the prospects for dividend increases.
13. The market is very efficient at valuing gold mining securities at a point in time. For this reason we should be surprised by a study done by Merrill Lynch in the late 1960’s that showed that fundamental value ratios had little or no predictive value for the future price performance of mining securities.
14. Large producers tend to trade at two to three times asset value and mid-tier companies at one to one and half times. Substantial price appreciation can occur as stocks move from lower to a higher category with production or reserve increases.
15. Inflation is not necessarily good for gold or gold mining stocks. In 1981, the CPI was up 8.9% while the gold price lost 31.3% and in 1986, the CPI was up 1.1% while the gold price increased 21.3%.
16. At times, gold shares trade as gold instruments and other times as equities. In December 1981, the gold index bottomed out and doubled before gold bullion stabilized in July/August 1982. In August 1984, the index was up 20% before gold turned up. Thus, gold stocks operate at times as a thermometer reflecting the price of gold and at times as a barometer predicting the future price of gold.
17. In the early phases of a gold bull market it pays to be an investor, in the later stages a trader.
18. Historically, when the speculative phase of the general equities bull market is over we often get a three-year bull market in gold and gold securities.
19. The biggest moves often come from dull markets when a commodity such as gold goes from "bad to not so bad", as in the October 2001 – May 2002 gold stock bull market.
20. Whenever a mid-tier or independent producer interlists in the U.S.A. it invariably increases the shareholder base and audience for the stock. These stocks often show rapid appreciation as U.S. and foreign interest increases. They also often peak when U.S. shareholdings are at their peak – e.g. Glamis Gold, Agnico-Eagle and Goldcorp in 2002. By tracing the relative volumes on the Canadian and American markets the astute trader can gauge when they are about to run out of momentum.
21. In a bear market, one should visit with the rest but buy only the best.
22. Once the bull market is underway then fundamentals do not matter as much. Every large low-grade deposit and marginal producer is carried along with the bullish trend.
23. It is not sufficient to get the sector timing right. One needs to sit in the right pew as well as attend the right church. In 2001 and 2002, investors in Barrick Gold and Placer Dome missed out on the gold bull market due to investor antipathy to hedged companies.
24. Buy scarcity, sell surplus. In the early stages of a gold bull market only a few "elite" stocks move; these stocks tend to have excellent fundamentals and growth prospects. When all gold stocks are appreciating, it is an early warning that it is time to consider profit taking. As the commodity silver is in surplus, at these low prices very few pure silver mines exist, as mining operations are, for the most part, uneconomic. As a consequence, there are only a few silver mining securities and so they tend to trade at high premiums. The same carries true for gold royalty companies such as Royal Gold, the former Franco-Nevada and for North American platinum group producers, such as North American Palladium, their main value lies in their scarcity.
25. Major mining companies under pressure to maintain or increase physical production tend to overpay for acquisitions. One recent study done by the Universal Precious Metals Fund found that 80% of the benefits went to the company making the discovery and only 20% to the acquisitor.
26. Leverage is a double-edged sword for gold mining companies. Excessive hedging at low prices and high debt level has given the industry a survivorship problem. The investor should be wary of companies that have large debt, hedged production and low grades. As gold prices fall, breakeven grades increase and reserves fall.
27. As many investors see gold as a hedge against excessive debt in the economy, they tend to shy away from companies that have "hedged away their hedge". For many of the capital intensive, low-grade and heavily hedged companies it is often a case of "gear today, gone tomorrow".
28. The investor needs to keep a keen eye on technological, economic and regional trends in the gold mining industry. In the early days of gold leaching, such companies as Glamis Gold and Pegasus were big winners. The switch from shallow drilling to deep drilling in the Carlin Belt in the 1980’s led to rapid increases in reserves and production for both Barrick and Newmont, and made Barrick the first one million ounce producer in North America. In recent years, deep drilling of vein structures in existing mines, resulting in large increases in high-grade ore, made Goldcorp and Agnico-Eagle into winners. Over the past five to ten years, the expansion of exploration into the non-English speaking world has provided many successes in Africa and South America. Companies in this category such as IAMGold, Meridian, Nevsun and PMI Ventures have shown substantial price appreciation.
29. The percentage of gold produced as a byproduct of base metals has steadily increased over the past ten years; it now stands at close to 20% of world production. The market treats such companies as closer to base stocks than as gold producers.
30. In recent years, the industry has been consolidated on a worldwide basis. In South Africa, in 1995, there were thirty-five major gold mines, now there are five. North American Seniors have also been consolidating at home and abroad. This reduces the number of potential investments for the gold investor and increases interest in mid-tier independents and Juniors.
31. As 85% of all gold sold ends up in the jewelry trade, the latter has an important influence on the seasonality of gold bullion. Demand slows in the summer months as dealers and retailers work off inventory. Fabrication tends to be strongest at the year end as jewelry manufacturers stock up in anticipation of the Chinese New Year and the Indian wedding season. In gold bull markets, the October to January period can be very strong. The seasonal low months occur in August and September. In the final quarter of the calendar year forward selling of bullion by producers and hedge funds tends to decline as rising bank bullion lease rates deter forward sales, which reduces supply to the market and leads to higher gold prices. Once a rapidly growing gold mining company’s physical production plateaus, they become candidates for seasonal trading. For exploration companies, nature is not always kind in locating mineral deposits, and exploration work is often confined to a seasonal basis.
32. One rule of thumb for gold mutual funds is that when money flows in at a faster rate than net asset value appreciates it is bearish, when money exits faster than net assets depreciates it is bullish.
33. When you buy is as important as what you buy. Based on the nature of the stock selected to trade the investor needs to determine an optimum time frame to hold the stock. It can be better to buy the wrong stock at the right time than to buy the right stock at the wrong time.
34. In any secular bull market, the first stocks to break out are often the best investment buys. They tend to go further and faster than stocks that break out later. Such companies plough their own furrow. These are the companies that have made discoveries, scaled up production or reduced costs during the bear market. In the 2001 – 2002 gold bull market Agnico-Eagle, Southernera, Goldcorp, Glamis Gold and IAMGold were the sector group leaders. In the second phase, beginning in December 2002, the whole index broke out. Companies with marginal properties and/or semi-developed ore bodies gained momentum. Then in late May and early June 2002, when almost all gold stocks were trading at new highs, a sharp correction occurred. After June 2002, a new phase occurred when attention switched to exploration companies such as PMI Ventures, Canadian Royalties, Midway Gold, Abington Ventures and SouthWest Gold.
35. In selecting Junior and mid-tier independent exploration companies to trade, one should bear in mind the old maxim that for a geological deposit to have a chance of being a successful producer it should be exceptional in at least two dimensions such as high-grade, low strip ratios or existing infrastructure. For instance, Abington Ventures has access to a smelter within trucking distance of their high-grade ore, obviating the need to build a mill to process potential ore. PMI Ventures in Ghana has assembled a regional exploration area equivalent in size to the Carlin Belt in Nevada and is surrounded by deposits belonging to Majors, two of which are being prepared for production.
36. One of the most surprising elements in reviewing the three phases of the 2001 – 2003 gold bull market was the relatively clear demarcation between the three phases.
Anatomy of a Gold and Precious Metals Bull Market
In our sample of 106 gold and precious metal companies between September 2001 and May 2003, three clear and distinct phases clearly emerge.
Phase One: September 2000 to August 2001. The so-called "early birds", eighteen stocks with an average gain to subsequent high of 395%.
Phase Two: October 2001 to June 2002. Group sector move of one- hundred-six stocks with an optimum hold period of twelve to fourteen weeks.
Phase Three: Exploration phase with over forty Junior exploration companies showing up on our radar screen, with the best performers including: Midway Gold, SouthWest Gold, Abington Ventures, Canadian Royalties and PMI Ventures.
Another surprise was the relatively short time frames over which most of the price gains were made, and in some cases lost in Phase Two and Phase Three, proving the point that, as in comedy, in the stock market timing is everything.
37. Selling is the flip side of the coin, as the poet Robert Frost expressed it, "Take care to sell your horse before it dies. The art of life is passing losses on." Before entering a trade, the trader needs to have an exit strategy planned. When it comes to volatile gold stocks it pays to be an anticipatory seller, not a reactionary one. In June 2002 when the first sell off occurred in gold stocks many dropped as much as 40% in a week.
38. Some traders try to trade every little wave. Volatile gold prices can make this a dangerous practice. There is an old trading maxim: Do not eat like a bird and excrete like an elephant, taking small profits but setting yourself up to suffer a big loss.
39. In timing sells, one rule of thumb is that large gold stocks make small moves over long periods of time while small mining stocks make short, sharp moves over short periods.
40. The most attractive gold warrants are invariably issued in a gold bear market as a sweetener to an equity issue. One need not concern one self about the liquidity of the warrant as long as the common shares are liquid – e.g. Goldcorp warrants in 2002.
Gold and Precious Metals Group Sector and Individual
Stock Breakouts and Duration of Bullish Trend
October 2001 to June 2002
Number of Initial Breakouts occurring in each month
Oct/01 Nov/01 Dec/01 Jan/02 Feb/02 Mar/02 Apr/02 May/02 Jun/02
3 2 4 25 30 13 13 15 1
Number of stocks that peaked in each month
Oct/01 Nov/01 Dec/01 Jan/02 Feb/02 Mar/02 Apr/02 May/02 Jun/02
0 0 0 2 2 3 4 53 42
Duration of bullish trend for individual stocks (i.e. Optimum Holding Period)
1 Mth 2 Mths 3 Mths 4 Mths 5 Mths 6 Mths 7 Mths 8 Mths 9 Mths
13 21 11 18 25 11 3 3 1
Mean Optimum Holding Period = 4 months
Median Optimum Holding Period = 4 months
Note: Month in which initial breakout occurred and peak subsequent high was reached are counted as complete months, which tends to exaggerate the length of the Optimum Holding Period.

Dosad nisam pronasao nesto, sto bi bilo korisnije za one koji trguju sa ovomom klasom dionica.

Sretno svima!
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Old 10.12.2008., 19:24   #6
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Red Alert: Gold Backwardation!!!

Red Alert: Gold Backwardation!!!



December 2, 2008, was a landmark in the saga of the collapsing international monetary system, yet it did not deserve to be reported in the press: gold went to backwardation for the first time ever in history. The facts are as follows: on December 2nd, at the Comex in New York, December gold futures (last delivery: December 31) were quoted at 1.98% discount to spot, while February gold futures (last delivery: February 27, 2009) were quoted at 0.14% discount to spot. (All percentages annualized.) The condition got worse on December 3rd, when the corresponding figures were 2% and 0.29%. This means that the gold basis has turned negative, and the condition of backwardation persisted for at least 48 hours. I am writing this in the wee hours of December 4th, when trading of gold futures has not yet started in New York.


According to the December 3rd Comex delivery report, there are 11,759 notices to take delivery. This represents 1.1759 million ounces of gold, while the Comex-approved warehouses hold 2.9 million ounces. Thus 40% of the total amount will have to be delivered by December 31st. Since not all the gold in the warehouses is available for delivery, Comex supply of gold falls far short of the demand at present rates. Futures markets in gold are breaking down. Paper gold is progressively being discredited.

Gold going to permanent backwardation means that gold is no longer for sale at any price, whether it is quoted in dollars, yens, euros, or Swiss francs. The situation is exactly the same as it has been for years: gold is not for sale at any price quoted in Zimbabwe currency, however high the quote is. To put it differently, all offers to sell gold are being withdrawn, whether it concerns newly mined gold, scrap gold, bullion gold or coined gold. I dubbed this event that has cast its long shadow forward for many a year, the last contango in Washington ― contango being the name for the condition opposite to backwardation (namely, that of a positive basis), and Washington being the city where the Paper-mill of the Potomac, the Federal Reserve Board, is located. This is a tongue-in-cheek way of saying that the jig in Washington is up. The music has stopped on the players of ‘musical chairs’. Those who have no gold in hand are out of luck. They won’t get it now through the regular channels. If they want it, they will have to go to the black market.
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Old 10.12.2008., 19:29   #7
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Zlato je jos jedan napuhani mjehur, ima veliki spread, zato se najbolje ostavit toga da ne ostanete bez gača.
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Old 11.12.2008., 01:03   #8
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Već sam upozorio da sajtovi tipa:
www.gold-eagle.com
www.goldseek.com
..i svi ostali koji imaju naziv gold u sebi imaju tendenciju biti jednostrano bullish na zlato i čitajući ih dalo bi se zaključiti da je zlato već na 2000$ i sprema se na 5000$
Nemojte me krivo shvatiti, pružaju oni mnogo korisnih informacija vezanih uz zlato, ali prije odluke o investiranju dobro je pročitati i poneki bearish view.
No da je zlatni bik postao nemiran vidi se i iz aviona.

Recimo Warren Buffet općenito za zlato kaže da je to nešto što vade crni ljudi iz neke rupe na jednom kontinentu i onda šalju bijelim ljudima na drugi kontinent koji ga onda zakopavaju u svoju rupu i čuvaju. Nema kamata, nema potencijalnog povećanja vrijednosti, pa kao takvo ulaganje nema smisla.

Ipak povijesno gledano zlato čuva svoju vrijednost... od biblijskih vremena na ovamo podjednaka se količina dobara mogla dobiti za istu količinu zlata. Čak i odnos Dow Jones indexa i zlata se povijesno kreće oko neke median vrijednosti (ta vrijednost ide oko 10, ali sa velikim oscilacijama). Uostalom evo graf.


@lovac
Kažeš zlato ima veliki spread. Na što konkretno misliš?
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Old 11.12.2008., 01:10   #9
lovac
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Preko Forexa, kupnja/prodaja je dosta razmaknuta(odvojena).
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Old 11.12.2008., 02:23   #10
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Devalvacija americkog dolara prema zlatu. Jesmo li pred jednim takvim historijskim cinom kao sto je bio onaj kad je predsjednik Roosevelth to ucinio 1934. godine? Evo sto misli professor emeritus ekonomije James Conrad bivsi dekan sveucilista u Indianpolisu. Prilozeni citat verbatim je iz eseja "The Manipulation of Gold Prices". http://www.seekingalpha.com/

Anyone who reads the written works of our Fed Chairman will know that Bernanke's long term plan involves devaluing the dollar against gold. This is the exact opposite of the position of most prior chairmen. He has overtly stated his intentions toward gold, many times, in various articles, speeches and treatises written before he became Fed Chairman. He often extols the virtues of F. D. Roosevelt's gold revaluation/dollar devaluation back in 1934, and credits it with saving the nation from the Great Depression. According to Bernanke, devaluation of the dollar against gold was so effective in stimulating economic activity that the stock market rose sharply in 1934, immediately thereafter. That is something that the Fed wants to see happen again.

It is only a matter of time before gold is allowed to rise to its natural level. Assuming that about one half of the recent increase in Federal Reserve credit is neutralized, the monetized value of gold should be allowed to rise to between $7,500 and $9,000 per ounce as the world goes back to some type of a gold standard. In the nearer term, gold will rise to about $2,000 per ounce as the Fed abandons its hopeless campaign to support Comex short sellers in favor of saving the other, more productive, functions of various banks and insurers.

Revaluation of gold, and a return to a gold standard, is the only way that hyperinflation can be avoided while large numbers of paper currency units are released into the economy. This is because most of the rise in prices can be filtered into gold. As the asset value of gold rises, it will soak up excess dollars, euros, pounds, etc., while the appearance of an increased number of currency units will stimulate investor psychology; and lending and economic output will increase all over the world. Ben Bernanke and the other members of the FOMC.
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