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Old 10.08.2018., 10:51   #151
Hrx84
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Član od: 19.02.2008.
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Default Odgovor na: Zanimljivosti iz svijeta

Prati li itko zbivanja oko Turske?
Jutros 6 lira za 1$.
Imate li kakvih ideja što pratiti tamo, ima li kakvih dobrih firmi u koje bi bilo dobro uložiti ako budu jeftine?
TUR ETF, TKC telekom?
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Old Jučer, 19:00   #152
Ilegalac
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Član od: 07.12.2005.
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Default Odgovor na: Zanimljivosti iz svijeta

Danas je već USD TRY sedam.

Shortati ETF TUR ili europske banke... BBVA, UCG, ING, BNP i HSBC. Otprilike tim redom. To su najizloženije europske banke turskom marketu, neposredno odnosno vlasnički. Al obzirom na veličinu tih banaka, taj utjecaj nije trenutno znacajan.

Nešto o utjecaju krize na lokalne banke:

Where do the risks in Turkey’s banking sector lie?
• Turkish policymakers have taken steps to support local banks today, but concerns have continued to mount about the health of the sector. Banks appear to hedge all their on-balance sheet FX mismatches so they’re not directly exposed to the lira’s collapse. The bigger risk, instead, seems to be that currency weakness, rising borrowing costs and the ensuing recession causes non-performing loans to jump.
• The central bank announced several measures this morning to try to support banks, including measures to improve banks’ liquidity and to ease their collateral requirements. However, these haven’t stemmed the fall in the lira and concerns have continued to mount about the health of the sector. And, as we warned in an Update on Friday, there do appear to be some early signs of stress.
• As it happens, Turkish banks don’t appear to be exposed directly to currency weakness. A currency crisis can cause immediate problems for banks if they have foreign currency mismatches on their balance sheets. However, legally Turkish banks are not allowed to carry an open foreign currency position. On-balance sheet FX liabilities exceed FX assets, but this is matched by off-balance sheet hedging instruments.
• Instead, there are two indirect risks to Turkey’s banking sector stemming from the sharp fall in the lira. The first risk is higher external borrowing costs. Turkish banks have funded the recent credit boom by borrowing on foreign wholesale markets, rather than relying on (more stable) domestic deposits. Turkish banks will now find it much more expensive to roll over these debts.
• The second risk is a sharp rise in non-performing loans (NPLs). One angle to this is that the fall in the lira means residents who have taken out loans in foreign currency may now struggle to repay these. Admittedly, there are stringent restrictions on foreign currency lending – households can’t borrow in FX and lending to corporates is restricted to large companies or those with FX incomes.
• The regulatory framework seems to have been quite effective – the NPL ratio on FX loans has been below 0.4% of total FX loans for several years, despite previous lira falls. However, the value of non-performing FX loans has risen rapidly since the lira began to fall sharply in May. And it’s unclear that Turkish borrowers will be able to cope with the scale of the falls in the currency seen over the past few days.
• The other angle to this is a rise in non-performing lira-denominated loans as the economy deteriorates. Turkey has seen one of the largest credit booms of any EM over the past decade, most of which was driven by a rise in lira-denominated lending. History suggests that, after such a rapid expansion of credit, lending standards tend to deteriorate, and bad loans tend to rise. With a recession on the horizon and borrowing costs rising, it will become more difficult for households and corporates to service their debts.
• It would probably take a sharp rise in the non-performing loan ratio to cause severe stress. The aggregate non-performing loan ratio is currently 3.4% and the banking sector is well capitalised – the Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of the banking sector stands at 13.9%, comfortably above the Basel III minimum of 6%.
Itd. Itd.

Moguć je i neki odbijanac, pa malo taktizirati oko ulaska.
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