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Old 21.03.2008., 01:46   #31
penzioner
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Default Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil

Bubbleovi se redaju ko na traci,sve se brze izmjenjuju...najprije tulips...pa sve do dot.com...pa recentnog housinga....da li je moguće da commodities bude slijedeći bubble kad ovaj medo otiđe na počinak u spilju?
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Old 21.03.2008., 06:32   #32
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Default Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil

Evo kao što sam očekivao, nafta pada a vozarine skaču...arapi keširaju ekstraprofit, commodities se vraćaju na početak priče...hoće li biti odbijanca slijedećih dana, možda ipak praznici malo smire paniku?
DJ BASE METALS: Profits Booked, Further Downside Seen Limited
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03/20/2008 01:59:00 PM EDT
DowJones


Citat:
Mar 20, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- By Melanie Burton

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--London Metal Exchange base metals prices have seen substantial losses this week as speculative froth has been sliced from the market, but Chinese demand should help stem losses into next week, traders and analysts said.

LME zinc and lead finished down over 4% from Wednesday, with LME tin down some 3% and LME nickel and LME aluminum down around 2.5%. LME copper managed to rebound $230 to $7,841 a metric ton from a six-week low to close the week around 2.5% lower.

Fears a recession in the U.S. would knock into world demand for commodities helped spur this week's asset wide selloff, said analysts.

The fallout that began with Bear Stearns' near collapse and snowballed into a sector-wide selloff, spurred investors to lock in profits ahead of the Easter holiday and upcoming quarter end.

But some analysts said the impact of a U.S. slowdown on global demand for metals would be limited as Chinese consumers step in to take advantage of lower prices.

Considering commodities have been at record highs, the hype surrounding this week's selloff may have been a bit overblown, said analyst Max Layton of Macquarie Securities.

"These credit issues, everyone has known they're going to been impacting the banks and the markets since the middle of last year. Once in a while there's a big sell off," said Layton, before prices stabilize. "There isn't too much more downside to go."

"The U.S. is still important but it won't be as important in the coming year. The 25% of manufactured exports that go to the U.S. from China will be affected, but there's ample monetary and fiscal stimulus still available to authorities were China to slow," he said.
Prices in dollar a metric ton.
3 Months Metal Bid-Ask Change from
Wednesday PM kerb
Copper 7840.0-7841.0 Dn 139
Lead 2713.0-2714.0 Dn 133
Zinc 2270.0-2280.0 Dn 140
Aluminum 2843.0-2845.0 Dn 77
Nickel 28550.0-28600.0 Dn 700
Tin 19900.0-19925.0 Dn 670
Aluminum Alloy 2580.0-2590.0 Dn 85
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Old 21.03.2008., 09:22   #33
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Default Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil

...nije lako zivitii u prelasku iz industrijskog u postindustrijsko drustvo, svasta nas jos ceka...
Barem nam nije dosadno!
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Old 21.03.2008., 19:39   #34
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Default Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil

[quote=Shogun;390777]Evo kao što sam očekivao, nafta pada a vozarine skaču...arapi keširaju ekstraprofit, commodities se vraćaju na početak priče...hoće li biti odbijanca slijedećih dana, možda ipak praznici malo smire paniku?
DJ BASE METALS: Profits Booked, Further Downside Seen Limited

Baš sam "osjetio" ovaj reversal (dan prije sam ti rekao da je ovo prezrelo za short i da nafta vozi "na pare u rezervoaru" još da sam opalio short kupnjom DUG i SMN ...) Morat ću ipak više slušati gut feeling
- kad god nisam propustio sam lijepe zarade ali ipak treba dosta hrabrosti stati pred zahuktali vlak i nadati se da će ga uzbrdica ispod tebe dovoljno usporiti.

No "zaštitnici" već govore kako je ovo samo iskrcaj profitabilnih pozicija radi likvidnosti i pokrivanja margin call-ova na gubitničkim pozicijama. Još je ipak rano zvati vrh i reći da je priči kraj.
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Old 22.03.2008., 23:44   #35
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Default Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil

Šta mislite o ovome? To bi išlo ako commodities nastavi padati, ili ako potražnja za čelikom uspori što iskreno ne bih htio vidjeti.

The Big 3 Iron Ore stocks, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale point to a commodities bust and global recession/depression
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Old 24.03.2008., 14:51   #36
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Citat:
PEKING, 24. marta 2008. (Beta-AP) - Kineski vođi su suočeni sa novim pritiskom povodom nestašica dizela i benzina. Redovi na pumpama u većim gradovima su danas sve duži kako se širi jaz između vrednosti nafte na svetskom tržištu i cena goriva pod državnom kontrolom.

Nestašice, koje su prvo počele u južnoj i centralnoj Kini, se izgleda šire na bogatije priobalne oblasti, uporedo sa mukama benzinskih stanica da dobiju gorivo iz rafinerija.

Vlasti pozivaju vozače da budu mirni i ne stvaraju zalihe.

Šangaj, trgovački centar zemlje, ima dovoljno dizela za više od 10 dana, objavile su gradske vlasti, mada na više velkih pumpi u gradu goriva nema a zaposleni kažu da čekaju na isporuku za koju ne znaju kad će doći.

"Cenu je odredila vlada, tako da potrošači ne treba da paniče u strahu od poskupljenja ili da prave zalihe," kažu gradske vlasti.

Sa inflacijom koja je na najvišem nivou za proteklih 12 godina, kineski ekonomski planeri se opiru pritisku rafinerija da se cene goriva podignu.

Kina je decenijama iz sopstvenih izvora zadovoljavala energetske potrebe, ali je postala čist uvoznik tokom ekonomskog buma devedesetih godina.

Uvoz sirove nafte, koji danas pokriva polovinu potražnje, popeo se za 12,3 odsto prošle godine na 1,1 milijardu barela.

Sa cenama za naftu od preko 100 dolara za barel, nezavisne rafinerije su smanjile ili prekinule produkciju. Državnim korporacijama, Sinopek (Sinopec) i PetroČajna (PetroĆina) je naređeno da obezbede snabdevanje velikih gradova i ključnih sektora kao što su poljoprivreda i javni saobraćaj, kažu državni mediji.
Možda treba gledati opet na long stranu jer ako oni počnu raditi rezerve, bit će kao sa ugljenom nedavno...
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Old 24.03.2008., 15:21   #37
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Default Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil

Samo da dodam da ovaj pad sirovina u tjedan dana je najveći pad u zadnjih 50 g.

MMF prognozira svjetski rast na 4,2%, za US na 0,1% 1Q, i nulti u 2q..
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Old 24.03.2008., 22:49   #38
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Default Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil

Zanimljiv link možda će nekog zanimati..
http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
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Old 25.03.2008., 03:37   #39
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Citat:
Shogun View Post
Samo da dodam da ovaj pad sirovina u tjedan dana je najveći pad u zadnjih 50 g.

MMF prognozira svjetski rast na 4,2%, za US na 0,1% 1Q, i nulti u 2q..

Evo razumnog objasnjenja.


Boris Sobolev, March 24, 2008

What caused such a vicious correction in commodities which took gold along for the ride? We have recently expressed concerns that sentiment became overly optimistic and a technical correction was needed to relieve overbought conditions.

But why was the correction so sharp? The main reason is that the de-leveraging process began to spread from financial paper, particularly mortgage backed securities, into other markets including the commodities sector. Stricter lending standards are causing traders to reduce overall positions, decrease risk and reduce their dependence on borrowed funds. Led by the hedge funds, the highly leveraged players started selling speculative positions in commodities. The correction happened in an instant as some hurried to take profits, while others were met with margin calls.

Excess cash was quickly funneled into the shortest maturity government debt – 3-month T-Bills, which typically approximate the fed funds rate set by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the T-Bill yields collapsed to a historic low of under 0.50%, light years away from the fed funds rate of 2.25%.

The flight to safety panic cannot continue much further and this unusual amount of cash sitting in T-Bills will have to find a home elsewhere. It will return to the most oversold sectors of the stock market, stabilizing precious metals and related stocks in the process.
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Old 25.03.2008., 14:59   #40
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Default Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil

Citat:
March 24, 2008, 2:33PM
Energy Sector Roundup: Oil Settles Lower

© 2008 The Associated Press
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NEW YORK — Following is a summary of top stories in the energy sector Monday afternoon.

Crude Falls As Dollar Gains

Oil prices fell as investors who bought crude-oil futures as an inflation hedge when the dollar was falling sold as the greenback got stronger.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery lost 98 cents to settle at $100.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Some investors seemed willing to look beyond the dollar for future price direction. Prices alternated between gains and losses all day long as a tug of war took place between the speculators who sold as the dollar gained strength, and investors who bought on a view that the economy _ and demand for oil and gasoline _ may not be as weak as initially thought.

April heating oil futures gave up 1.41 cents to settle at $2.9631 a gallon, while April natural gas futures rose 26.4 cents to settle at $9.329 per 1,000 cubic feet. Gasoline futures added 3.6 cents to settle at $2.6412 a gallon.

In London, May Brent crude fell 52 cents to settle at $99.86 barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

American Airlines Fuel Tab Takes Off

Surging oil prices will probably give American Airlines parent AMR Corp. a much fatter fuel bill than it expected just two months ago.

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Fort Worth, Texas-based company said it now expects to spend $2.98 per gallon on fuel this year, 12.5 percent more than its mid-January prediction of $2.65 a gallon.

The revised forecast puts AMR's 2008 fuel bill at $9.29 billion _ more than $1 billion more than it predicted earlier in the year _ assuming prices don't rise even further.

China Fuel Shortage Worsens

China's leaders face more shortfalls in diesel and gasoline, with lines growing at filling stations in major cities, as the gap widens between international crude oil values and centrally controlled fuel prices.

The shortages, first reported in southern and inland China, appeared to be spreading to the wealthier areas in the north and east as filling stations struggled to get shipments from refiners.

With crude oil prices over $100 a barrel, independent refiners have cut back or stopped production. Major state-owned suppliers Sinopec and PetroChina, ordered to ensure supplies to major cities and key sectors such as farming and public transport, were limiting sales to independent gas stations in some regions, state media reports said.

As China's economy boomed, it became a net oil importer. Official data show last month China's crude oil imports rose more than 18 percent from a year ago, to 3.6 million barrels a day.

Iraq Oil Exports Lower Last Month

Iraq's crude-oil exports in February slipped to 56.1 million barrels, down from the 59.6 million barrels exported in January, according to the country's oil ministry. Revenue increased with the rise in world oil prices.

Average production for February was 2.4 million barrels per day, with exports averaging 1.93 million barrels per day. Iraq grossed $5.04 billion in February, an increase from $4.81 billion from the previous month, the ministry said.

Iraq sits on the world's third-largest oil reserves, totaling more than 115 billion barrels. But the industry is hobbled by a lack of modern equipment and training after decades of U.N. sanctions, war and Saddam Hussein's dictatorship.

Iraq plans to increase oil output to 3 million barrels a day by the end of the year with the help of foreign experts.

Bright Outlook for Solar Shares

Shares of solar products companies rose with the broader market, as Cowen & Co. analyst Rob Stone said most solars look undervalued to him.

Stone says investors are wary because of uncertainty about government subsidies for solar products, silicon cost and supply concerns, and demand. Still, he thinks much of the fog will lift within six months and shares should rally.

"We believe a bill to extend tax credits for renewables may be introduced in the Senate on Earth Day, April 22nd," Stone said, and chances for passage are improving. "Unlike the House bill, it should not be funded by taxes on domestic oil and gas production, which drove strong Republican resistance and threats of a presidential veto."

Stone also says "silicon anxiety" should abate in the second half of the year, with more output from new plants and silicon prices past their peak. He has an "Outperform" rating on Evergreen Solar Inc., First Solar Inc., Hoku Scientific, SunPower Corp., Suntech Power and Trina Solar Ltd.

FBR Sees Coal Exports Rising Through 2009

Coal producers' shares had a good day as well, with most up 2 percent or more in afternoon trading.

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey analyst David Khani, just back from a visit to several coal export ports says he's convinced coal exports will continue to rise this year and next. "Based on our tour and prior port survey, we estimate that total net exports for 2008/2009 period will increase over 300 percent, to 109 metric tons from 36 metric tons exported for 2006 and 2007," he wrote in a note to investors.

Khani also thinks U.S. power plants face stiff competition for coal from Europe. "If domestic buyers do not out bid European buyers nor commit to longer term contracting at higher prices, U.S. spare capacities will be fully utilized by 2010, and U.S. power plants will experience significant inventory drawdown, particularly the eastern plants," he said.

"Based on our forecast for 1Q 2008 contract position for 2009 and 2010, we believe the producers are running 10 percent ahead of last year's levels, leaving less coal available for the domestic utility ... Our port tour indicates that many of the contracts producers signed in December 2007 and January 2008 are committed to foreign buyers."
Mea obrati pažnju na donji dio članka gdje govori o ugljenu koji uz željeznu rudaču i čelik čini glavni materijal za prijevoz capesizea. Ovo daje uz žitarice podršku rutama prema US, jer zanimljiva je zadnja rečenica.
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