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Smart 29.06.2012. 19:26

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Današnji rast skoro 8%, trenutno je na 83,80 usd. Ponio je euro "malo"! :)

Forex-trader 20.09.2012. 15:48

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
http://www.disruptiveoiltech.com/#IH920

axy 28.09.2012. 14:09

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Citat:

Forex-trader (Post 584109)

Naravno da je ovo scam. Proucite iskustva s "Tobin Smithom" kristalno ispoliranih zubiju i Changewaveom.

axy 28.09.2012. 14:23

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Ovaj tjedan sam proveo dvadesetak sati u zivim raspravama s dva gospodina iz jednog NOC-a. Poceli su raditi krajem pedesetih godina kao geolozi, jedan je prosao cijelu vertikalu i mirovinu krajem devedesetih docekao kao energy trader dok je drugi radio visoko u odjelu financijal. Jednog od njih znam vec nekoliko godina. Sada su u drugoj polovici 70tih, vrlo zivahni, i dalje vrlo lijepo zaradjuju kao konzultanti. :)

Evo po sjecanju nekoliko zanimljivih zapazanja.

1. "Cijena nafte" koja se servira javnosti a koja je dobrim dijelom cijena po kojoj se placa gorivo u retailu, nema veze s cijenom nafte s kojom racunaju NOCovi i drzave u svojim proracunima jer su te cijene odredjene na posve drugi nacin. "Cijena nafte" kojom se bave "tehnicari" koji iscrtavaju besmislene svijece i pravce je izmanipulirana cijena nafte koja ukljucuje i utjecaj i spota i forwarda.

2. Trzista nafte su regionalna. U pravilu, Amerikanca ne zanima osobito sto se dogadja na ruskom trzistu i obrnuto. Jedino su prije 20tak godina kada je cijena WTI i Brenta bila slicna postojale ponekad supstitucije.

3. Temeljna podjela sirove nafte po API skali na sweet i sour, te na light i heavy, diktira njenu uporabu. Ispricali su mi anegdotu o heavy sour crudeu koji je bio prakticno API 6, te ga nije bilo moguce iskrcati iz tankera jer je bio kao bitumen, u gotovo skrutnutom stanju. Ta podjela nafte diktira tehnicke specificnosti prerade, pa i primjenu. Ukoliko se rafinerija nalazi blizu drugih industrijskih postrojenja koja mogu iskoristiti heavy crude, isplati se kupovati tu naftu. Isto tako, cijenu sirove nafte definiraju derivati koji se iz nje mogu proizvesti. Iz sirove nafte proizvode se razne frakcije, od petroleja i kerozina preko loz ulja pa sve do bitumena. Ovisno o udjelima (light moze dati puno benzina i kerozina a manje bitumena, dok heavy daje puno bitumena), te o prodajnoj cijeni proizvoda, formira se ulazna cijena crudea, a ne obrnuto! Dakle, nije da crude ima neku cijenu, pa se onda po njoj formira cijena derivata, barem na razini drzava (vlasnik koncesije - MNOC). Prica sweet-sour ima veze s kolicinom sumpora cije je uklanjanje vrlo skupo i energetski intenzivno.

4. Dva su temeljna oblika razvoja naftnih i plinskih polja, a to su koncesije ili PSA (Production Sharing Agreement). Ovo je tema koja je previse komplicirana da bi se o njoj moglo na forumu.

5. Vrijednost integriranih naftnih kompanija je odredjena samo dokazanim rezervama nafte i plina i nicime vise. Vrijednost konstrukcijskih kompanija u energetskom sektoru u downstreamu odredjena je samo vrijednoscu backloga narudzbi. Ovdje je zanimljivo primijetiti koliko je zapravo tehnicka, pa i klasicna fundamentalna staticka analiza u ovom sektoru besmislena.

6. MNOCovi koriste futurese samo kao hedge za realne ugovore na naftu. Dio MNOCova zabranio je trading futuresima internim pravilima.

7. Naftne kompanije tipicno uopce ne zanima novac u smislu akvizicije ili stjecanja imovine, tim vise sto se po dovrsetku projekata koji su dobiveni pod koncesijskim uvjetima ili kao PSA imovina daje narucitelju, odnosno davatelju koncesije ili First Partyju tj. NOCu. Integrirane naftne kompanije zanima iskljucivo dobivanje koncesija, sklapanje PSA i razmjena manjinskih interesa s drugim MNOCovima kako bi se optimizirao cash flow portfelja.

8. Tipicno Exploration traje 3-4 godine, Development 4-8 godina a Production od 10 do 20 godina. U Explorationu i ponekad Developmentu je rizik i trosak iskljucivo na MNOCu a pozitivan cash flow krece tek od Productiona. Na kraju postoji opet znacajno ulaganje/trosak u decomissioning odnosno uklanjanje.

9. Pod PSA ugovorom, MNOC koji radi E&P namiruje se iz Productiona, iz tzv. Cost Oila. Kod koncesije zapravo MNOC placa First Partyju, odnosno NOCu ili drzavi. Kod PSA ugovora koji su danas prevalentni, novac zapravo drzava ili NOC placa MNOCu koji razvija polja.

10. Cijene nafte ukljucujuci ove "tehnicarske" su tipicno namjestene, a (s ovim se neki drugi strucnjaci s kojima sam pricao ne bi slozili) OPEC ih drzi proizvodnim kvotama. Nisam siguran koliko ova tvrdnja stoji jer OPEC proizvodi ispod 40 % iako ima vise od 70 % rezervi, no opet, tvrdnja ima smisla iz nekih drugih razloga koji proisticu iz odnosa OPEC drzava i MNOCova. Kada se kaze da su namjestene, to znaci da ih OPEC moze drzati na odgovarajucim razinama.

Vrlo zanimljiva materija, moglo bi se o ovome danima (mjesecima, godinama, pa i zivotima :) .

kagemusha 06.04.2013. 00:00

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Oil refiners in Europe will shut 10 percent of their plants this decade as fuel demand falls to a 19-year low

prof 07.04.2013. 11:17

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Zanimljiv članak:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/03/2...-oil-era-nigh/

Za malo dobre zabave, nemojte propustiti i ovaj video na kraju:
Perhaps, it’s time for a “Hitler finds out he’s over-invested in oil” video?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQK2FPJSg1k

Salamander 07.04.2013. 22:06

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Prof, ako ti nije problem možeš li ga okačiti jer mi nikako ne otvara.

prof 08.04.2013. 09:55

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Ima i grafova, ali njih ne kupi.
Ne otvara ti, jer se moraš besplatno registrirati na FT.

Okay. This is weird.

Perhaps the analysts in Citi’s commodities team headed by Seth Kleinman (which includes the inimitable Ed Morse) didn’t get the memo? You know, the one about needing to talk up the old carbon complex as much as possible?

After all, how else do you account for the disruptive tone of the following summary points:

Global Oil Demand Growth – The End Is Nigh

The Substitution of Natural Gas for Oil Combined With Increasing Fuel Economy Means Oil Demand Is Approaching a Tipping Point

The combination of an accelerating push to substitute natural gas for oil and ongoing improvements in fuel economy is enough to mean that oil demand growth may be topping out much sooner than the market expects. The shift from oil to gas is already underway in the US, where the shale gas revolution is giving a large economic incentive to make the switch. As the US shift gains pace, politics, greater natural gas availability and environmental concerns are facilitating the trend into the global market, more than compensating for the narrower gas-oil spread.

Higher prices, the removal of many fuel subsidies and rising fuel economy mandates have dramatically improved the outlook for fuel efficiency in global automotive and truck fleets. Citi’s automobiles team estimates that new car fuel efficiency is now improving by 3-4% p.a., with trucks managing 1-2%. As cars make up ≈60% of the total global road fleet we conservatively estimate that new vehicles (cars and trucks combined) fuel economy increases by 2.5% p.a.

And then there’s this…

One of the many unforeseen ripple effects of the US shale revolution is a push to substitute natural gas for oil. This is set to accelerate with LNG already challenging diesel’s 13 mb/d heavy duty truck use globally but especially in China, bunker’s 3.7 mb/d seaborne market, and CNG and propane set for exponential growth not only in markets such as Brazil, Egypt, Iran and India, but in Russia and the US as well.

The ramp-up in US ethane-based petrochemical capacity starting in 2017 should displace some of its oil-based competition elsewhere. The petrochemical sector globally uses ≈5.4-mb/d of naphtha, some of which can be substituted by the use of ethane and propane. This will increasingly shift the pull on supplies from oil to natural gas as oil-based crackers in China and the Middle East will face increasing competitive pressure.

Oil-based power generation is increasingly being replaced by gas-fired generation. As much as 2 mb/d of power generation demand in the Middle East in total could be switched to natural gas by the end of the decade, and the increasing availability of LNG towards end-decade could back out other oil for power generation needs in India and Latin America amongst others.

The structural bull market of the previous decade was a result of surging global oil demand and consistently disappointing non-OPEC supply growth, compounded by a collapse in Iraqi and Venezuelan production. The outlook for each of these factors has now reversed, reinforcing Citi Research’s long term view that by the end of the decade Brent prices are likely to hover within a range of $80-90/bbl.

All of which seems to imply, above all, that Blake Carrington WAS right about shale oil all along (God damn you, Alexis!):

But more importantly, that 2008 may indeed have turned out to be the big reset towards renewable and efficient fuels that many had hoped it would be.

Which gives us an excuse to put up the following chart from the EIA last week (H/T Climateer Investing) which shows to what degree the relationship between US growth and electricity demand is changing:

As the EIA noted:

Absent a very rapid introduction of some new electricity-using device—perhaps electric vehicles—a sharp rebound in electricity demand growth is not expected. While there is always uncertainty about future electricity demand, the efficiency standards for lighting and other appliances that have been in place over the past few years will continue to put downward pressure on growth as new equipment is added and existing stock is replaced. For example, a new refrigerator purchased today uses less than a third as much electricity as one purchased in the late 1970s, despite the larger size of today’s refrigerators (see chart below).

The over-riding theme, even accounting for the adoption of electric vehicles, is that western economies are doing more with fewer resources.

And hypothetically, even if electric vehicles were adopted more widely, if the technology was coupled with self-driving technology — we could still see a reduction in hours driven as car pools became more intelligently managed.

But there’s more from the Citi note that’s worth noting. Take the following chart as an example:

In many ways, this chart beautifully illustrates how cartel actions designed to squeeze prices — and to maximize profits from a mostly monopolised commodity — end up becoming self-defeating in the long run.

The original Opec oil shock, the best coordinated public market squeeze of all time, had a major impact on demand trends.

From then on, even though much of the technology to induce more efficiency was already available, oil demand began to recover gradually because there was still no real economic incentive to shift from the established carbon complex system to a more efficient one. The run up in oil prices in 2008, however, changed all that. It provided the impetus needed to cut demand in a meaningful way for the first time since the oil shock.

Of course, whilst the first oil shock was engineered by Opec, it’s worth considering what really motivated the market squeeze that took place from the mid noughties onwards. The peak oil theory was a dominating theme during that time frame. But whilst the theory propagated the idea that we would soon reach peak production despite ongoing demand growth, causing an inevitable energy crisis, it seems instead to have predicted our journey towards self-imposed peak production and a well managed shift from one carbon source to another more efficient one.

Given the preponderance of the peak oil theory at the time, and the government mandates it inspired, it’s interesting to consider to what degree high oil prices were actually a function of an industry clasping to its old relevance but clearly aware of its eventual upcoming demise, thus unwittingly self-imposing a market squeeze designed to extract as much money from the sector for as long as it still could.

The speculator ramp-up in the futures market, in that context, may really have been about providing a profitable hedge for production at those inflated prices for as long as possible. Essentially, extending the period during which profits could be maximised for as long as possible. Or, in other words, extending how long the dying infrastructure could be flogged for the benefit of incumbent players.

As for the scale to which these shifts have hit the US above all other countries, the following charts tell the story glaringly well:

It’s a disruptive shift by anyone’s standards.

And one, as the Citi analysts also note, which is mostly to do with substitution towards natural gas:

This drop in oil demand is partly the result of natural gas getting substituted for oil in a variety of sectors. This development is taking root in the US due to the large gap between natural gas prices and oil product prices, but it should transfer across the globe, as in many countries the spread between oil and gas is still substantial, if not a bit smaller than the US. Even in countries where the spread is compressed – such as China – environmental concerns are bolstering the shift from oil to gas.

The full note (which is in the usual place) is definitely worth a read, since it also provides impressive statistics on global car-fleets and their modernisation rates, not to mention other complimentary shifts away from oil happening in developing markets as well.

In short, if the note is correct, the most under reported story of the decade may be financial markets having totally missed the point at which oil actually became a growing economic irrelevance rather than a burden.

Perhaps, it’s time for a “Hitler finds out he’s over-invested in oil” video?

axy 08.04.2013. 10:20

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Zanimljivo je kako ponekad i ljudi koji bi trebali dublje razumijevati neku materiju uspijevaju promasiti poantu i srz price.

Cijena nafte namjestena je cijena i pod utjecajem svega osim ponude i potraznje.

Vec sam ovdje pricao da potraznja za naftom pada, pa su me ovi nasi investitori sto zive samo od investiranja i nista drugo ne rade uvjeravali kako sam u krivu. No, paralelno s time, vec dvije godine drzave i NOCovi odugovlace s novim naftnim projektima, smanjujuci output i drzeci cijene visoko usprkos padu potraznje. Neki ogromni projekti koji su trebali poceti prije par mjeseci, tek sada su u fazi tenderinga a dodjela bi mozda mogla biti krajem 2013. ili pocetkom 2014. Isto tako, nije jasno o cemu ovaj clanak gore govori, o cijenama nafte ili raspolozivosti nafte.

Sto se plina tice, autor ne shvaca da bi u slucaju znacajnije supstitucije nafte plinom zakonodavci, a osobito europski, samo nametnuli one poreze i trosarine na plin koji vec postoje na naftu i kupcu bi se malo toga promijenilo.

Naposlijetku, nafta se ne koristi samo kao gorivo nego za mnoge druge svrhe za koje se plin ne moze koristiti, ili moze uz ogromnu i neisplativu potrosnju energije...

uskok 08.04.2013. 14:58

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Citat:

axy (Post 603045)

Cijena nafte namjestena je cijena i pod utjecajem svega osim ponude i potraznje.
.

Nije li to slučaj sa svom strateški važnom robom? No ako je primarni trend potrošnje negativan, takva intervencija na tržištu se ne će moći održati. Na kraju, "time of reckoning" će doći.


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