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Shogun 30.10.2008. 19:30

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Čuj po BDI-ju nafta bi trebala biti na 20$ barel.

samba 12.11.2008. 16:27

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Citat:

Shogun (Post 451586)
Čuj po BDI-ju nafta bi trebala biti na 20$ barel.

Mozda je 20$ preoptimisticki,ali ako produzi sa ovim trendom,nista cudno da do nove godine dodze oko 50$,a pazi ovo danas druze;)

Oil Dashboard
November, Wednesday 12 2008 - 10:11:00
Crude Oil
$57.36
▼1.97 3.32%

MEA 13.11.2008. 16:56

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
IEA Says Oil Demand Growth On Path To 25-Year Low
By SPENCER SWARTZ
OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


LONDON--The International Energy Agency Thursday warned that world oil demand growth this year is on the cusp of falling into negative territory for the first time in 25 years as global economic problems hammer away at energy consumption.

In a new twist from past months, the agency also made its first substantial downward revision to oil demand in China and other emerging markets, where much of the growth in energy consumption is coming from. Demand in 2009 in these nations was cut by 260,000 barrels a day,with most of that coming China.

The IEA, in its widely watched monthly oil market report, said world oil demand is expected to grow by just 0.1% in 2008 versus a previous growth projection of 0.5% and far below the 1.1% growth in 2007. The last time world oil demand contracted was 1983.

Globally, consumers and businesses are expected to use on average 86.2 million barrels a day this year, representing a downward revision of 330,000 barrels from the IEA's previous report. The Paris-based agency is energy advisor to the U.S. and other major consumers.

The IEA slashed its 2009 world crude demand forecast by 670,000 barrels a day. Consumption next year is seen growing by a mere 0.4%.

The downward revisions mirror similarly big cuts to oil fundamentals recently by many industry analysts, but underline the extent to which withering economic activity is eroding crude consumption.

"We are looking at an outright recessionary environment in the U.S. and other major economies so this new forecast reflects that," said IEA analyst David Martin.

Highlighting that development, Germany's government statistics office earlier Thursday said Europe's biggest economy by output had entered recession after economic activity fell in both the second and third quarters.

The latest IEA report sharply raises the specter that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will soon move again to take barrels out of the market to prevent prices falling below $50 a barrel, a level that if sustained would deliver a serious blow to the economic prospects of all OPEC nations.

An OPEC delegate told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday that all the oil group's members are likely to attend an already scheduled gathering of Arab oil-producing nations on Nov. 29 in Cairo to discuss further production cuts.

U.S. front-month oil futures, down 63% since hitting a high of $147 a barrel in July, traded down about 30 cents at $55.83 a barrel, near a 22-month low, at 1035 GMT Thursday.

In a sign of the big problem facing OPEC, the IEA said oil inventories in the U.S. and other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations stood at 55 days of forward demand cover -- well above the 10-year average level -- in September and could rise to 56 days when all the data for October is compiled.

OPEC is in the process of implementing nearly 2 million barrels a day of production cuts announced at two separate meeting in September and October and analysts believe the group could take another 1 million barrels a day off the market to support prices.

Demand in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, is expected to drop by 5.4% this year and 2% in 2009.

Consumption in China, the world's No. 2 oil consumer, is seen growing at 5.2% in 2008, well below the IEA's 5.9% projection in January, and by just 3.7% in 2009.



OPEC se sprema braniti cijenu barela na $ 50.
Za primijetiti je da je u 2007. svjetska potrošnja nafte porasla za "mizernih" 1,1 % a nafta je u toj godini skoro udvostručila cijenu.

uskok 13.11.2008. 17:56

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Citat:

MEA (Post 455204)
IEA Says Oil Demand Growth On Path To 25-Year Low
By SPENCER SWARTZ
OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


LONDON--The International Energy Agency Thursday warned that world oil demand growth this year is on the cusp of falling into negative territory for the first time in 25 years as global economic problems hammer away at energy consumption.

In a new twist from past months, the agency also made its first substantial downward revision to oil demand in China and other emerging markets, where much of the growth in energy consumption is coming from. Demand in 2009 in these nations was cut by 260,000 barrels a day,with most of that coming China.

The IEA, in its widely watched monthly oil market report, said world oil demand is expected to grow by just 0.1% in 2008 versus a previous growth projection of 0.5% and far below the 1.1% growth in 2007. The last time world oil demand contracted was 1983.

Globally, consumers and businesses are expected to use on average 86.2 million barrels a day this year, representing a downward revision of 330,000 barrels from the IEA's previous report. The Paris-based agency is energy advisor to the U.S. and other major consumers.

The IEA slashed its 2009 world crude demand forecast by 670,000 barrels a day. Consumption next year is seen growing by a mere 0.4%.

The downward revisions mirror similarly big cuts to oil fundamentals recently by many industry analysts, but underline the extent to which withering economic activity is eroding crude consumption.

"We are looking at an outright recessionary environment in the U.S. and other major economies so this new forecast reflects that," said IEA analyst David Martin.

Highlighting that development, Germany's government statistics office earlier Thursday said Europe's biggest economy by output had entered recession after economic activity fell in both the second and third quarters.

The latest IEA report sharply raises the specter that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will soon move again to take barrels out of the market to prevent prices falling below $50 a barrel, a level that if sustained would deliver a serious blow to the economic prospects of all OPEC nations.

An OPEC delegate told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday that all the oil group's members are likely to attend an already scheduled gathering of Arab oil-producing nations on Nov. 29 in Cairo to discuss further production cuts.

U.S. front-month oil futures, down 63% since hitting a high of $147 a barrel in July, traded down about 30 cents at $55.83 a barrel, near a 22-month low, at 1035 GMT Thursday.

In a sign of the big problem facing OPEC, the IEA said oil inventories in the U.S. and other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations stood at 55 days of forward demand cover -- well above the 10-year average level -- in September and could rise to 56 days when all the data for October is compiled.

OPEC is in the process of implementing nearly 2 million barrels a day of production cuts announced at two separate meeting in September and October and analysts believe the group could take another 1 million barrels a day off the market to support prices.

Demand in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, is expected to drop by 5.4% this year and 2% in 2009.

Consumption in China, the world's No. 2 oil consumer, is seen growing at 5.2% in 2008, well below the IEA's 5.9% projection in January, and by just 3.7% in 2009.



OPEC se sprema braniti cijenu barela na $ 50.
Za primijetiti je da je u 2007. svjetska potrošnja nafte porasla za "mizernih" 1,1 % a nafta je u toj godini skoro udvostručila cijenu.

Upravo citam u novinama da IEA (International Energy Agency) upozorava na skorasnju nestasicu nafte ako se ne uloze masivna financijska sredstva (26 triliona dolara) za isatrazivanje i eksploataciju. Mogucnost proizvodnje naftnih polja koja su prosta svoj maksimum (preko polovice svjetskih rezervi) rapidno pada po prosjecnoj stopi od 6% godisnje i ne ce biti u stanju zadovoljiti dugorocnu potrebu svijeta koja raste po stopi od 1.6% godisnje ako se nova nalazista nafte ne ukljuce u proizvodnju.

"jedni vicu furt naprej
drugi krice pak nazaj
i vrag si ga onda znaj
gde je pekel a gde raj"

MEA 13.11.2008. 18:04

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Citat:

uskok (Post 455220)
Upravo citam u novinama da IEA (International Energy Agency) upozorava na skorasnju nestasicu nafte ako se ne uloze masivna financijska sredstva (26 triliona dolara) za isatrazivanje i eksploataciju. Mogucnost proizvodnje naftnih polja koja su prosta svoj maksimum (preko polovice svjetskih rezervi) rapidno pada po prosjecnoj stopi od 6% godisnje i ne ce biti u stanju zadovoljiti dugorocnu potrebu svijeta koja raste po stopi od 1.6% godisnje.

"jedni vicu furt naprej
drugi krice pak nazaj
i vrag si ga onda znaj
gde je ekel a gde raj"

Pročitao sam i ja nekoliko takvih "plaćenih oglasa" od istih onih izvora koji su drukali naftu na $ 250 dogodine. Izgleda da su pogodili. Samo im je tiskarski stroj omaškom dodao 2.
Sad bi htjeli "raspaliti stari plam' ".
Ako novi Bretton Woods uspije skinuti špekulantske lešinare na futuresima ovaj svijet će biti mnogo bolje mjesto za živjeti.
Takav zakon je bio donesen i nakon Velike depresije ali su maheri pronašli "stražnji ulaz". Čim je i on zatvoren evo gdje je cijena nafte.

Evo što i zemlje BRIC-a traže od Velikih (naglasak je na špekulante):



Emerging Countries Seek Equal Say At G20 Summit

AFP

SAO PAULO --The big emerging countries that are now the main pillars of world economic growth hope to push their way into seats next to the rich nations' club at the G20 summit in Washington on Saturday.

Brazil, Russia, India and China -- the so-called BRIC countries -- are determined to have their new heavyweight status recognized by the Group of Seven advanced countries, and to win a say in directing the planet's economic affairs.

Their newfound influence, particularly China's, was felt last weekend when Beijing sent stock markets spinning upward after announcing a $586 billion stimulus package.

Brazil and India, which have become public lobbyists on behalf of the emerging markets, want a new financial architecture to emerge from the crisis, calling the current constitution of the G7, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank outdated.

Brazil has been especially vocal in noting that -- this time -- the emerging countries aren't to blame for the global crisis, which rippled out from the U.S. and quickly contaminated Europe.

The poorer countries, though, face big risks as the crisis grows and mutates, notably in terms of commodity export prices, lack of liquidity and foreign exchange volatility.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has that said the financial system must be reformed, and that countries should acknowledge the "economically damaging role of excessive speculative activity."

"When the capital development of a country becomes a byproduct of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done," he said.

The demand by the BRICs was partially conceded by the main industrialized countries at a preparatory G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Sao Paulo during the weekend.

The group agreed that the IMF and other institutions formed from the 1944 Bretton Woods accord "must be comprehensively reformed so that they can more adequately reflect changing economic weights in the world economy."

The U.S. representative at that meeting, David McCormick, Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, said Washington has long backed giving emerging countries more say in the IMF and the World Bank.

The summit, he said, "will lay the groundwork toward making important regulatory changes."

Singh is expected to push for greater IMF and World Bank assistance to vulnerable countries.

He and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva hope to see solutions that spare their nations from the fallout of troubles that started in rich countries.

They are looking for a better regulation of wealthy economies -- especially by imposing greater oversight over the transactions of multinational corporations -- and for extra finance from the IMF and World Bank.

Argentina President Cristina Kirchner is expected to ask the IMF to compensate for the drying up of liquidity worldwide by giving credits to emerging nations without preconditions, an official said.

For Brazilian Economy Minister Guido Mantega, the task is tricky, as the crisis is still pummeling markets.

"We have to change the tires while the car is still rolling," he said.


http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/article...+At+G20+Summit

čvarkožder 13.11.2008. 22:14

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Prognoza nikad dosta. S tim da je i Jim Rogers rekao da ne vidi načina da se trenutnim ulaganjem u naftu u srednjoročnom razdoblju može ikako izgubiti (uz commodities, Kinu i bježanje iz svega što je povezano s dolarom).

What the Pros Say: Oil at $300; Gold at $2,000

Asian markets were hit hard again on Thursday as gloom about the global economy deepened, sending oil to a 22-month low of $55 a barrel and gold near the $710-an-ounce level. But CNBC's experts believe these precious commodities could climb in the long term.

Oil May Test $300 in 5 Years

Within the next four to five years, oil prices may surge as high as $300 a barrel, forecasts Puru Saxena, CEO of Puru Saxena Wealth Management. He tells CNBC that is why he still likes oil and other natural resources.

Gold May Spike to $2000 in Medium Term

Gold can easily go up to $1500-$2000 in the medium-term, says Johann Santer, MD at Superfund Financial Hong Kong. As such, he tells CNBC that gold at $710 is a good entry point.

Dollar/Yen Set to Hit 93

The Japanese yen is set to hit 93 yen against the dollar in the short term, predicts Masafumi Yamamoto, head of FX strategy Japan at The Royal Bank of Scotland.

Dollar Likely to Continue Gaining

The Aussie dollar, Kiwi dollar and sterling will continue to remain under pressure against the dollar, says Jeffrey Halley, senior manager of FX trading at Saxo Capital Markets.

Best Tactic to Employ

Look for an asset class strategy that is highly diversified, which gives you the ability to go long or short in all kinds of asset classes, advises Johann Santer, MD at Superfund Financial Hong Kong.

Stock Picking Among US Blue Chips

When the markets recover, King Lip, portfolio manager at Baker Avenue Asset Management is looking to buy into blue chip firms that have weathered tough economic storms in the past, like McDonald's, P&G and United Technologies.

Banking on Domestic-Focused Sectors

Domestically-focused companies make good investments, says Malcolm Wood, head of Asia Pacific strategy at Morgan Stanley. He tells CNBC which sectors in Asia he is betting on.

Asia Investment Strategy

Malcolm Wood, head of Asia Pacific strategy at Morgan Stanley explains why he is cautious on Australian investments but is 'equalweight' South Korea.

Providing Long-Term Investment

Gome Electrical is one company that should provide long-term investors with protection, says Andrew Sullivan, sales Trader at MainFirst Securities HK.

Early Birds on High Alert

"The early birds, the market timers, should be on high alert because (in the) latest month we are developing what probably seems to be a reversal pattern," Edward Loef, technical analyst from Theodoor Gilissen Bankiers, told CNBC when looking at the DJ STOXX 600. But the downtrend remains in tact for the mean time, he warned.

uskok 14.11.2008. 17:12

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Prognoze nemogu komentirati jer za to nemam kvalifikacija, ali fundamenti ukazuju na inflaciju.Sadasnja deflacija (i recesija) je posljedica nedostatka novca u ekonomskom sustavu koji 70% svog BDP ostvaruje na potrosnji uglavnom posudjenog novca. Politicari se boje deflacije kao vraga jer on nosi sobom socijalne probleme pa se zato trilijuni dolara pumpaju u sustav. Masa novca raste, premda dobar dio momentalno ne ide u opticaj, ali kad udje doci ce do inflacionog pritiska na cijene. Cijene dionica zdravih poduzeca koje su sada korigirane poceti ce rasti kao i cijena zlata. DJIA (kao manje-vise reprezentativna mjera burzovnih indeksa)/zlato kvocjent je sada na 12. Historijski prosjek je deset i dok god je on iznad njega zlato je dobra investicija.

matematic 24.11.2008. 20:43

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Citat:

uskok (Post 455525)
Cijene dionica zdravih poduzeca koje su sada korigirane poceti ce rasti kao i cijena zlata. DJIA (kao manje-vise reprezentativna mjera burzovnih indeksa)/zlato kvocjent je sada na 12. Historijski prosjek je deset i dok god je on iznad njega zlato je dobra investicija.

Trazeci nacin kako objasniti zasto mi se zlato ne svidja kao investicija,
osim eventualno, sto kaze Richardson, nesto zlatnika kad nista drugo ne bude vrijedilo kao sredstvo razmjene, naletjeh na ovo:

"It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head." :rofl:

Glede inflacije i investicija:
"..stocks are probably still the best of all the poor alternatives in an era of inflation - at least they are if you buy in at appropriate prices."

Naravno, WB.

uskok 25.11.2008. 05:35

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
Citat:

matematic (Post 458233)
"It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head." :rofl:

Da, sjecam se, negdje sam to procitao. Vrlo duhovito. A znas li sto je to rudnik zlata? "Rupa u zemlji i lazljivac i prevarant koji na njoj sjedi". Navodno je to rekao Mark Twain. Ima jos toga, tako je Sir J.M. Keynes rekao da je zlato barbarski relikt. To bi moglo biti tocno, samo je zaboravio napomenuti da covjecanstvo ima jos mnogo barbarskih navika, jer da nema, nebi se morale banke zakljucavati. Vidis zbog istog razloga treba biti i novac "zakljucan" da ga nitko nemoze krasti. A kako se krade novac? Na klasican nacin otudjivanjem ili, sto centralne banke rade, falsificiranjem novca, t.j. tiskanjem novcanica bez podloge.

Zlato je nekad bila podloga papirnatog novca ali vise nije. Steta, jer je lakse nositi papire nego zlato. Centralne banke jos uvijek imaju zlato u trezorima, ali ni priblizno da bi njime mogle pokrit papirnati novac, zato ga ne garantiraju nicim. Zlato im nije neprijatelj, naprotiv. Ono im je neprijatelj samo onda kad nije u njihovim rukama. Zbog toga je trziste zlata jako volatilno. S obzirom da je to trziste malo, lako ga je poremetiti dumpingom sto se cesto dogadja. Svrha otresti se malih kupaca i diskreditirati zlato. Ako to nece dati rezultata, onda ce ga jednostavno zabraniti kao 1933 kada je Roosewelth proglasio posjed zlata kriminalim djelom kaznivim zatvorom i novcanom kaznom.

hjk 05.12.2008. 10:42

Odgovor na: Nafta zvana Crude Oil
 
ovaj DUG, neznam kak se korelira i sa čime, ali mu je korelacija sa naftom čista nulica!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=D...urce=undefined


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